CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten delivered a warning Democrats probably did not want to hear Tuesday: despite President Trump’s weak approval numbers and widespread voter frustration over inflation, Republicans remain very much alive heading into the 2026 midterm battle.
Appearing on CNN News Central, Enten pointed to new polling showing that while many Americans blame Trump for the rising cost of living, Democrats have failed to convert that dissatisfaction into the kind of overwhelming political advantage they expected. In other words, voters may be unhappy with Trump, but that does not automatically mean they are suddenly enthusiastic about handing power back to Democrats.
“I think this poll serves as a big-time reality check for Democrats,” Enten said. “It ain’t over yet, especially with the redistricting when we look ahead to the 2026 race for Congress.”
That assessment cuts directly against months of confident media narratives suggesting Republicans were headed for disaster because of inflation concerns, economic uncertainty, and foreign policy tensions surrounding Iran. Instead, Enten’s analysis showed Democrats holding only a narrow lead on the generic congressional ballot — a lead that has actually shrunk over time.
According to Enten, Democrats were leading Republicans by roughly six points in congressional preference polling back in March of last year. That advantage has now been cut in half to about three points, which he emphasized falls within the margin of error.
“You would have thought that the Democrats’ lead would expand on the generic congressional ballot,” Enten observed. “It didn’t happen.”
CNN anchor John Berman referenced polling showing 77 percent of Americans believe Trump bears responsibility for increased living expenses and asked whether Democrats were benefiting politically from that frustration. Enten’s answer was blunt: not really.
Despite Trump’s approval ratings remaining underwater, Democrats continue struggling with voters who simply do not trust them much more. Enten highlighted polling showing the two parties tied on the issue voters consistently rank near the top of their concerns: the economy.
“Which party is trusted more on the economy? It’s a tie among registered voters,” Enten said.
That finding may be the most alarming number for Democrats heading into the midterms. Historically, opposition parties tend to build significant momentum when a president’s approval collapses, particularly during periods of economic dissatisfaction. Yet Democrats have not managed to separate themselves in the minds of voters enough to create a dominant political environment.
Enten summarized the situation with unusual directness for CNN.
“Just because Donald Trump is unpopular doesn’t make Democrats popular,” he said. “And when you match Democrats against Republicans, all of a sudden it is a dead heat.”
