Navy SEAL veteran and bestselling author Jack Carr warned this week that America’s enemies are carefully watching the ongoing conflict with Iran and will draw major conclusions from the outcome. Speaking on Hang Out with Sean Hannity, Carr argued that the war represents far more than a regional confrontation in the Middle East. In his view, it is a test of whether the United States can still project strength and deterrence after years of costly military failures and strategic confusion.
Carr pointed directly to America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan as a turning point that emboldened hostile nations around the world.
“What do we think North Korea is learning? What do we think Iran is learning from what we did in Afghanistan and how we spent 20 years there?” Carr asked. “We had 20 years to prepare to exit, and that was the best that we could do?”
The former SEAL said adversaries took note of the chaotic 2021 withdrawal, particularly the deadly suicide bombing at Abbey Gate that killed 13 U.S. service members and roughly 170 Afghan civilians just days before the final evacuation. The images of desperate evacuations, abandoned equipment, and collapsing Afghan forces became a symbol of American weakness in the eyes of many critics — and, Carr argues, in the eyes of foreign governments as well.
“They’re taking lessons from that,” Carr said. “That’s why what we’re doing now is a reset.”
Carr described President Donald Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict as an opportunity to restore American deterrence, something he believes has steadily eroded since the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq dragged on without clear victories or stable outcomes.
“This is really an opportunity for us to reestablish ourselves and reestablish that deterrence that we enjoyed for so long following World War II,” he said.
According to Carr, prolonged military campaigns that end without decisive results damage more than public morale at home. They signal to adversaries that the United States may lack the political will or strategic discipline to sustain effective military pressure abroad.
“After Afghanistan, and certainly after Iraq, we lost that ability to deter just by being the United States of America,” Carr explained. “Our enemy said, ‘Look, this is the best they can do?’”
He argued that nations hostile to the United States now calculate risks differently because they no longer automatically fear overwhelming American retaliation or operational efficiency.
Carr specifically warned that China is watching the Iran conflict closely and could apply lessons from it to Taiwan. If the United States appears indecisive, weak, or incapable of achieving its objectives, Beijing may view that as evidence it can move more aggressively in the Pacific.
“We have to win because if we do not win this thing, then they take another lesson, China specifically,” Carr said. “They take lessons about Taiwan from that if we lose. So, the stakes are pretty high.”
Carr also dismissed the idea that the conflict is primarily about short-term economic disruptions such as oil prices or instability around the Strait of Hormuz. In his view, the larger issue is global order and whether America can still maintain strategic credibility on the world stage.
“That’s why these stakes are so high,” Carr concluded. “This is why the outcome of what’s happening in Iran right now is so important, not just for the administration or not just for the region but for the world.”
