George W. Bush joined a fundraiser for a group called Maintain the Majority. He was a “special guest” for Sen. John Cornyn. But the event left out one huge name. It did not include GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton. That is the story, and it is a big deal.
The New York Times reported the details of the event. Bush and Cornyn hosted the fundraiser in Texas. They raised cash for candidates in Alaska, Iowa, and Maine. They also helped races in Michigan, New Hampshire, and Ohio. The list included Sen. Dan Sullivan and Sen. Susan Collins. It also included candidates like Mike Rogers and John Sununu. But Paxton was not on that list. Not even mentioned.
Paxton is the current Texas attorney general. He defeated Cornyn in a primary earlier this year. Cornyn and his allies spent over $90 million to try to stop him. They lost. Now, the establishment is moving money elsewhere. They are ignoring the man who beat their favorite. This is not a small oversight. It is a clear signal.
Bush and Cornyn have a long history with Donald Trump. They have also had a tough time with Trump’s favorite candidates. Paxton is one of those candidates. The relationship is strained. Karl Rove, a former advisor to Bush, recently said he would vote for a Texas Democrat. That shows just how deep the split goes.
Look at the dates coming up. “Early voting in Texas starts Monday, October 19, 2026 (28 days from today, September 21),” a Cornyn X post said, according to Fox News. The post did not mention Paxton. “It runs through Friday, October 30.” Tuesday, November 3, 2026, marks Election Day for the 2026 midterms, occurring 43 days from today. The silence from the establishment is loud. They are talking about the race, but not with Paxton.
Early voting in Texas starts Monday, October 19, 2026 (28 days from today, September 21). It runs through Friday, October 30.
The 2026 midterms (Election Day) are Tuesday, November 3, 2026 — 43 days from today.
— Senator John Cornyn (@JohnCornyn) September 21, 2026
While Bush skips Paxton, Trump is not. Trump’s group, MAGA Inc., has more than $415 million in cash. That money is flowing to the people Trump backs. Paxton’s campaign has already received about $15 million from MAGA Inc. Another $54 million came from a PAC tied to Sen. John Thune. The money is there. The question is who gets it.
Some people think the money from California will save the day. “Texas is a massive state, a lot resources from California are pouring in because these California liberals like Talafreako, but I don’t think it’s going to help him at the end of the day,” one observer noted. The name Talafreako refers to James Talarico, the Democrat running against Paxton. The money from the other side is real, but it might not be enough.
Ken Paxton knows how to win. “You got to remember Ken Paxton won this state a couple of times in the general – he won a primary against a strong incumbent that’s been there for a long time by a couple hundred thousand votes,” a supporter pointed out. He beat a strong incumbent. He won big. The establishment fears him, or perhaps they just dislike him. Either way, they are not funding him.
The stakes are high for the whole country. Toss-up ratings apply to Michigan, Iowa, Texas, Ohio, Maine, and Alaska. The Republican Party holds a slim 53-47 majority in the Senate. If they lose these seats, they lose control. Democrats are looking to flip seats against Paxton and others. The fight is on. The establishment group is betting on everyone but him.
Despite the cold shoulder from Bush and Cornyn, the path forward is clear for Paxton. He has the support of the base and the money from Trump’s allies. The establishment might turn its back, but the voters will decide. “Paxton is going to win this race.” That is the prediction from those who know the state best. The establishment can withhold the check, but they cannot stop the win. The voters in Texas will have the final say, and they know who they want.
