There are political upsets, and then there are political upsets with details so peculiar that the straightforward version sounds embellished.
Wisconsin’s Democratic gubernatorial primary appears to have delivered the latter.
Francesca Hong entered election night after a string of polls showed her comfortably ahead of her Democratic opponents. Instead, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley — a candidate who had suspended his campaign in June before jumping back into the contest in July — emerged as the winner.
And Crowley’s explanation for returning to the race involved prayer, his wife and a cardinal.
The bird, to be clear.
DDHQ Race Update (est. 96% in): Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary
David Crowley (D): 303,738 (39.8%)
Francesca Hong (D): 301,621 (39.5%)
Kelda Roys (D): 57,955 (7.6%)Follow more results here:https://t.co/FvSUeSn4oo pic.twitter.com/GcJfkdyH2n
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) August 12, 2026
Decision Desk HQ called the contest for Crowley shortly after 1:20 a.m. Central Time. At approximately 2 a.m., Crowley held 39.80 percent of the vote to Hong’s 39.38 percent, with nearly all ballots counted. The Associated Press also called the race for Crowley.
The margin was tiny.
What happened to Hong’s polling advantage was anything but.
Polls collected by RealClearPolitics had consistently shown Hong with double-digit leads during July. In the surveys cited there, she never held less than an 11-point advantage over her nearest opponent.
Hong might come back, but wtf is up with these primary polls? pic.twitter.com/sPdEhG2Iyl
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 12, 2026
That made Tuesday’s result a dramatic departure from what the public polling had suggested.
Hong, a Wisconsin state representative and Democratic Socialists of America member, had also accumulated plenty of controversy during her rise.
She attracted attention over previous comments criticizing Thanksgiving and capitalism, later changing course on the holiday amid scrutiny during the campaign. Her campaign also hired an OnlyFans creator as a deputy campaign manager.
Then there was an old social-media post in which Hong described eating her child’s food while trying to leave a restaurant because, she wrote, white people there were giving her anxiety.
Yet none of those controversies initially appeared to be preventing her from building a substantial primary lead.
Part of the unusual situation involved the rest of the Democratic field.
Crowley initially failed to gain sufficient traction and suspended his campaign in June. Former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes also struggled to consolidate the electorate. Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez appeared positioned to capture establishment support before financial problems involving her campaign contributed to her departure from the contest.
Then Crowley came back.
It seems that Francesca Hong hates just about every single holiday. pic.twitter.com/VVHnu9atAw
— Greg Price (@greg_price11) August 3, 2026
Wisconsin Public Radio reported that he re-entered the race July 18.
The story he subsequently told about making that decision could hardly have been scripted better.
“Me and my wife prayed,” Crowley said. “My wife, during the prayer, she said, ‘God, I don’t like subtlety, so make it very obvious.’
“And she actually asked to see, like, a red bird. And it was very specific.”
His wife apparently still wasn’t convinced.
Then she saw a cardinal.
That was the sign.
There is, however, one amusing ornithological complication with this story: Northern Cardinals aren’t exactly rare visitors to Wisconsin.
BirdWatchingHQ describes them as among the state’s most familiar birds and notes that they are commonly seen around bird feeders.
David Crowley says he decided to resurrect his campaign after his wife prayed and asked for a sign in the form of a red bird if he should resume the campaign. She later saw a red bird, Crowley says. pic.twitter.com/QB6hyRSU32
— Ken Klippenstein (@kenklippenstein) August 8, 2026
So this wasn’t the equivalent of requesting an emperor penguin and watching one stroll down the driveway five minutes later.
Still, whatever one makes of the cardinal story, Crowley returned to a primary in which polling had suggested he faced extraordinarily long odds.
Weeks later, he defeated the candidate who had been leading those polls.
For Hong, the numbers are particularly brutal. A candidate repeatedly showing double-digit advantages didn’t merely lose a close contest to another candidate who had steadily been gaining ground throughout the campaign.
She apparently lost to someone who had already quit.
Crowley suspended his campaign because he didn’t see a viable route forward. He then reversed himself, returned to the contest and overtook the candidate whom public polling had positioned as the favorite.
